On Monday, I asked the AI assistant ChatGPT to summarize what major U.S. research institutions have found about the long-term economic and social impact of deporting law-abiding undocumented immigrants. Its summary, drawing on publicly available studies from the American Immigration Council, the Penn Wharton Budget Model, ITEP (Tax Contributions of Undocumented Immigrants, 2022), the Brookings Institution, and Arizona State University, noted that “findings consistently show significant negative economic, fiscal, and social consequences.” [1]
“Findings consistently show significant negative economic, fiscal, and social consequences.” [1]
1. Economic Growth
“Mass deportations would shrink U.S. GDP by 4–7%, or roughly $1.1 to $1.7 trillion annually.” [1][2]
“Mass deportations would shrink U.S. GDP by 4–7%, or roughly $1.1 to $1.7 trillion annually.” [1][2]
2. Labor Markets
“Critical industries -- agriculture, construction, hospitality, food processing, and elder care -- would face immediate labor shortages, driving up costs and disrupting supply chains.” [3][4]
3. Fiscal Costs
“Undocumented immigrants contribute $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes (2022). Deportations would reduce tax revenues while enforcement and detention costs would rise sharply.” [5][6]
3. Social Insurance
“Removing millions of payroll tax contributors would undermine Social Security and Medicare solvency, worsening long-term fiscal pressures.” [7]
3. Fiscal Costs
“Undocumented immigrants contribute $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes (2022). Deportations would reduce tax revenues while enforcement and detention costs would rise sharply.” [5][6]
3. Social Insurance
“Removing millions of payroll tax contributors would undermine Social Security and Medicare solvency, worsening long-term fiscal pressures.” [7]
5. Family and Children
“Deportations separate families, increase child poverty, and reduce children’s future educational attainment and earnings.” [8][9]
6. Community Impact
“Local economies would experience lower consumer spending, falling property values, and weakened civic participation.” [10]
7. Administrative Costs
“The cost of mass enforcement, detention, and transportation is enormous -- tens of billions annually -- with diplomatic and humanitarian fallout to follow.” [11]
8. Demographic Impact
“Removing millions of working-age adults would accelerate U.S. population aging, reduce workforce growth, and undermine America’s long-term economic vitality.” [12]
“Deportations separate families, increase child poverty, and reduce children’s future educational attainment and earnings.” [8][9]
6. Community Impact
“Local economies would experience lower consumer spending, falling property values, and weakened civic participation.” [10]
7. Administrative Costs
“The cost of mass enforcement, detention, and transportation is enormous -- tens of billions annually -- with diplomatic and humanitarian fallout to follow.” [11]
8. Demographic Impact
“Removing millions of working-age adults would accelerate U.S. population aging, reduce workforce growth, and undermine America’s long-term economic vitality.” [12]
“Deporting law-abiding undocumented immigrants is not a low-cost policy option. It would reduce GDP, increase consumer prices, shrink the tax base, weaken social insurance, destabilize families and communities, and impose heavy enforcement costs. Evidence indicates that large-scale removals would create broad, lasting harm to the U.S. economy and society.” [1]
KANSAS & MISSOURI SENATORS AND REPRESENTATIVES
Contact your U.S. Senators and House Representatives today.
DEMAND HUMANE, ECONOMICALLY SOUND IMMIGRATION POLICY.
KANSAS
SENATOR JERRY MORAN
521 Dirksen Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-6521
www.moran.senate.gov
521 Dirksen Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-6521
www.moran.senate.gov
SENATOR ROGER MARSHALL
479A Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-4774
www.marshall.senate.gov
479A Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-4774
www.marshall.senate.gov
REPRESENTATIVE SHARICE DAVIDS
2435 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515-1603
202-225-2865
davids.house.gov
2435 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515-1603
202-225-2865
davids.house.gov
REPRESENTATIVE DEREK SCHMIDT
1223 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515-1602
202-225-6601
schmidt.house.gov
1223 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515-1602
202-225-6601
schmidt.house.gov
MISSOURI
SENATOR JOSH HAWLEY
381 Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-6154
www.hawley.senate.gov
REPRESENTATIVE MARK ALFORD
328 Cannon House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515-2504
202-225-2876
alford.house.gov
381 Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-6154
www.hawley.senate.gov
REPRESENTATIVE MARK ALFORD
328 Cannon House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515-2504
202-225-2876
alford.house.gov
SENATOR ERIC SCHMITT
404 Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-5721
www.schmitt.senate.gov
404 Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-5721
www.schmitt.senate.gov
REPRESENTATIVE SAM GRAVES
1135 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515-2506
202-225-7041
graves.house.gov
1135 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515-2506
202-225-7041
graves.house.gov
Tell Congress: America needs solutions that strengthen, not shrink, our economy.
SOURCES:
[1] ChatGPT summary citing major studies (2025).
[2] American Immigration Council – Economic Contributions of Immigrants.
[3] Penn Wharton Budget Model – Macroeconomic Impact of Immigration Policy Changes.
[4] Brookings Institution – Labor Market Effects of Immigration.
[5] Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), Tax Contributions of Undocumented Immigrants (2022).
[6] U.S. Department of Homeland Security – Enforcement and Removal Operations Annual Report.
[2] American Immigration Council – Economic Contributions of Immigrants.
[3] Penn Wharton Budget Model – Macroeconomic Impact of Immigration Policy Changes.
[4] Brookings Institution – Labor Market Effects of Immigration.
[5] Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), Tax Contributions of Undocumented Immigrants (2022).
[6] U.S. Department of Homeland Security – Enforcement and Removal Operations Annual Report.
[7] Social Security Administration – Actuarial Analysis of Workforce Contributions.
[8] Arizona State University – Family and Child Impacts of Deportation.
[9] Urban Institute – Children of Immigrants and Long-Term Outcomes.
[10] National League of Cities – Local Economic Effects of Immigration Policy.
[11] Migration Policy Institute – Cost Analysis of Large-Scale Deportation Efforts.
[12] Congressional Budget Office – Demographic and Fiscal Implications of Immigration.
[8] Arizona State University – Family and Child Impacts of Deportation.
[9] Urban Institute – Children of Immigrants and Long-Term Outcomes.
[10] National League of Cities – Local Economic Effects of Immigration Policy.
[11] Migration Policy Institute – Cost Analysis of Large-Scale Deportation Efforts.
[12] Congressional Budget Office – Demographic and Fiscal Implications of Immigration.