On Monday, I asked the AI assistant ChatGPT to summarize what major U.S. research institutions have found about the long-term economic and social impact of deporting law-abiding undocumented immigrants. Its summary, drawing on publicly available studies from the American Immigration Council, the Penn Wharton Budget Model, ITEP (Tax Contributions of Undocumented Immigrants, 2022), the Brookings Institution, and Arizona State University, noted that “findings consistently show significant negative economic, fiscal, and social consequences.” [1]
“Findings consistently show significant negative economic, fiscal, and social consequences.” [1]
1. Economic Growth
“Mass deportations would shrink U.S. GDP by 4–7%, or roughly $1.1 to $1.7 trillion annually.” [1][2]
“Mass deportations would shrink U.S. GDP by 4–7%, or roughly $1.1 to $1.7 trillion annually.” [1][2]
2. Labor Markets
“Critical industries -- agriculture, construction, hospitality, food processing, and elder care -- would face immediate labor shortages, driving up costs and disrupting supply chains.” [3][4]
3. Fiscal Costs
“Undocumented immigrants contribute $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes (2022). Deportations would reduce tax revenues while enforcement and detention costs would rise sharply.” [5][6]
3. Social Insurance
“Removing millions of payroll tax contributors would undermine Social Security and Medicare solvency, worsening long-term fiscal pressures.” [7]
3. Fiscal Costs
“Undocumented immigrants contribute $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes (2022). Deportations would reduce tax revenues while enforcement and detention costs would rise sharply.” [5][6]
3. Social Insurance
“Removing millions of payroll tax contributors would undermine Social Security and Medicare solvency, worsening long-term fiscal pressures.” [7]
5. Family and Children
“Deportations separate families, increase child poverty, and reduce children’s future educational attainment and earnings.” [8][9]
6. Community Impact
“Local economies would experience lower consumer spending, falling property values, and weakened civic participation.” [10]
7. Administrative Costs
“The cost of mass enforcement, detention, and transportation is enormous -- tens of billions annually -- with diplomatic and humanitarian fallout to follow.” [11]
8. Demographic Impact
“Removing millions of working-age adults would accelerate U.S. population aging, reduce workforce growth, and undermine America’s long-term economic vitality.” [12]
“Deportations separate families, increase child poverty, and reduce children’s future educational attainment and earnings.” [8][9]
6. Community Impact
“Local economies would experience lower consumer spending, falling property values, and weakened civic participation.” [10]
7. Administrative Costs
“The cost of mass enforcement, detention, and transportation is enormous -- tens of billions annually -- with diplomatic and humanitarian fallout to follow.” [11]
8. Demographic Impact
“Removing millions of working-age adults would accelerate U.S. population aging, reduce workforce growth, and undermine America’s long-term economic vitality.” [12]
“Deporting law-abiding undocumented immigrants is not a low-cost policy option. It would reduce GDP, increase consumer prices, shrink the tax base, weaken social insurance, destabilize families and communities, and impose heavy enforcement costs. Evidence indicates that large-scale removals would create broad, lasting harm to the U.S. economy and society.” [1]
ILLINOIS & MISSOURI SENATORS AND REPRESENTATIVES
Contact your U.S. Senators and House Representatives today.
DEMAND HUMANE, ECONOMICALLY SOUND IMMIGRATION POLICY.
ILLINOIS
SENATOR TAMMY DUCKWORTH
524 Hart Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-2854
www.duckworth.senate.gov
CONGRESSMAN MIKE BOST
352 Cannon House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-5661
bost.house.gov
524 Hart Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-2854
www.duckworth.senate.gov
CONGRESSMAN MIKE BOST
352 Cannon House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-5661
bost.house.gov
SENATOR DICK DURBIN
711 Hart Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-2152
www.durbin.senate.gov
711 Hart Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-2152
www.durbin.senate.gov
CONGRESSWOMAN NIKKI BUDZINSKI
1717 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-2371
budzinski.house.gov
1717 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-2371
budzinski.house.gov
CONGRESSWOMAN MARY MILLER
1740 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-5271
marymiller.house.gov
1740 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-5271
marymiller.house.gov
MISSOURI
SENATOR ERIC SCHMITT
404 Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-5721
www.schmitt.senate.gov
404 Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-5721
www.schmitt.senate.gov
SENATOR JOSH HAWLEY
381 Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-6154
www.hawley.senate.gov
CONGRESSMAN JASON T. SMITH
1011 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-4404
jasonsmith.house.gov
381 Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
202-224-6154
www.hawley.senate.gov
CONGRESSMAN JASON T. SMITH
1011 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-4404
jasonsmith.house.gov
CONGRESSMAN WESLEY BELL
1429 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-2406
bell.house.gov
CONGRESSMAN BOB ONDER
1113 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-2956
onder.house.gov
1429 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-2406
bell.house.gov
CONGRESSMAN BOB ONDER
1113 Longworth House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-2956
onder.house.gov
CONGRESSWOMAN ANN WAGNER
2350 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-1621
wagner.house.gov
2350 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, DC 20515
202-225-1621
wagner.house.gov
Tell Congress: America needs solutions that strengthen, not shrink, our economy.
SOURCES:
[1] ChatGPT summary citing major studies (2025).
[2] American Immigration Council – Economic Contributions of Immigrants.
[3] Penn Wharton Budget Model – Macroeconomic Impact of Immigration Policy Changes.
[4] Brookings Institution – Labor Market Effects of Immigration.
[5] Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), Tax Contributions of Undocumented Immigrants (2022).
[6] U.S. Department of Homeland Security – Enforcement and Removal Operations Annual Report.
[2] American Immigration Council – Economic Contributions of Immigrants.
[3] Penn Wharton Budget Model – Macroeconomic Impact of Immigration Policy Changes.
[4] Brookings Institution – Labor Market Effects of Immigration.
[5] Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), Tax Contributions of Undocumented Immigrants (2022).
[6] U.S. Department of Homeland Security – Enforcement and Removal Operations Annual Report.
[7] Social Security Administration – Actuarial Analysis of Workforce Contributions.
[8] Arizona State University – Family and Child Impacts of Deportation.
[9] Urban Institute – Children of Immigrants and Long-Term Outcomes.
[10] National League of Cities – Local Economic Effects of Immigration Policy.
[11] Migration Policy Institute – Cost Analysis of Large-Scale Deportation Efforts.
[12] Congressional Budget Office – Demographic and Fiscal Implications of Immigration.
[8] Arizona State University – Family and Child Impacts of Deportation.
[9] Urban Institute – Children of Immigrants and Long-Term Outcomes.
[10] National League of Cities – Local Economic Effects of Immigration Policy.
[11] Migration Policy Institute – Cost Analysis of Large-Scale Deportation Efforts.
[12] Congressional Budget Office – Demographic and Fiscal Implications of Immigration.